Art of the Long View:

Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

Schwartz, P. (1996).  Art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Doubleday. 

In the competitive strategic environment, business leaders often find themselves desiring better foresight into the future.  In his Art of the Long View, Peter Schartz introduces scenario-based planning as a method of preparing and planning for the future. 

Scenarios are stories about the way the world might turn out tomorrow; they are stories that can help business leaders recognize and adapt to changing aspects of the present environment.  Schwartz states that scenarios provide a “method for articulating the different pathways that might exist for you tomorrow and [for] finding your appropriate movements down each of those possible paths.”  To operate in an uncertain world, Schwartz contends that you need to be able to reperceive – to question your assumptions about the way the world works, so that you can see the world more clearly.  “The end result,” Schwartz argues, “is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future.” (9)

Schwartz proposes an eight-step method for developing scenarios:
            1) Identify focal issue or decision
            2) Key forces in the local environment
            3) List driving forces in the macro-environment that influence the key
              factors identified earlier.  Examples include society, technology, economics,
              politics, etc.
            4) Rank by importance and uncertainty
            5) Select scenario logics
                        Identifying the plot that
                        (a) best captures the dynamics of the situation and
                        (b) communicates the point effectively
            6) Flesh out the scenarios
            7) Implications
            8) Select leading indicators and signposts

As planners work out their scenarios, they may have to consult unconventional sources of information, such as peripheral publications or markets.  Once 2-3 scenarios are developed, planners can use them as a building block for designing strategic conversations, and planners can tell they have good scenarios when the scenarios are both plausible and surprising.  An effective scenario will also almost always changes behavior. 

Schwartz cautions readers to beware of ending up with three scenarios, since planners often are tempted to identify one of the three as the “middle” or “most likely” scenario.  In addition, planners are warned to avoid assigning probabilities to different scenarios.  Scenario planning isn’t necessarily about predicting the future – rather, appropriately planning for a range of futures; this book offers a valuable starting point for generating strategic conversations on the future.

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